Update: 2026-07-09 01:01:15

2026-07-09 01:01:16 +03:00
parent 6fe1d665e7
commit ac0c343f18
4 changed files with 380 additions and 1 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+<?php
+// ============================================================
+// get_pricing_stability_log.php
+// شاشة مراجعة محرك الثبات (Shadow Mode) — يعرض سجل التصنيفات
+// والإجراءات المقترحة بدون ما يكون أي منها مطبّق فعلياً على kazan
+// ============================================================
+
+require_once __DIR__ . '/../../connect.php';
+
+if ($role !== 'admin' && $role !== 'super_admin') {
+    http_response_code(403);
+    echo json_encode(['status' => 'failure', 'message' => 'Unauthorized access. Admin role required.']);
+    exit;
+}
+
+try {
+    $countryCode = filterRequest('country_code');
+    $limit = filterRequest('limit', 'int') ?? 100;
+
+    $sql = "SELECT * FROM pricing_stability_log";
+    $params = [];
+
+    if ($countryCode) {
+        $sql .= " WHERE country_code = :country";
+        $params[':country'] = strtoupper($countryCode);
+    }
+
+    $sql .= " ORDER BY evaluated_at DESC LIMIT :limit";
+
+    $stmt = $con->prepare($sql);
+    $stmt->bindValue(':limit', $limit, PDO::PARAM_INT);
+    foreach ($params as $key => $val) {
+        $stmt->bindValue($key, $val);
+    }
+    $stmt->execute();
+    $log = $stmt->fetchAll(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
+
+    // ملخص سريع لآخر تصنيف لكل دولة
+    $stmtLatest = $con->query("
+        SELECT l1.* FROM pricing_stability_log l1
+        INNER JOIN (
+            SELECT country_code, MAX(evaluated_at) AS max_time
+            FROM pricing_stability_log
+            GROUP BY country_code
+        ) l2 ON l1.country_code = l2.country_code AND l1.evaluated_at = l2.max_time
+    ");
+    $latestPerCountry = $stmtLatest->fetchAll(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
+
+    jsonSuccess([
+        'log' => $log,
+        'latest_per_country' => $latestPerCountry,
+    ]);
+
+} catch (Exception $e) {
+    error_log("[get_pricing_stability_log.php] Error: " . $e->getMessage());
+    jsonError("Failed to fetch pricing stability log: " . $e->getMessage());
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,269 @@
+<?php
+/**
+ * cron_pricing_stability_engine.php
+ * ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+ * محرك الثبات والاستقرار — وضع مراقبة (Shadow Mode) فقط.
+ *
+ * ما بيلمس جدول kazan أبداً. بيقارن معامل سعر الكيلو الحالي لكل
+ * منافس/دولة (من competitor_secret_formulas) مع الوسيط المرجعي
+ * لآخر 7 أيام (من competitor_formula_history)، ويسجّل تصنيفه
+ * والإجراء المقترح بجدول pricing_stability_log لمراجعته يدوياً.
+ *
+ * التصنيف:
+ *   - drift <= -15%  → temporary_promo   (برومو مؤقت — لا يُغيَّر السعر الأساسي)
+ *   - |drift| > 5% مستمر عبر آخر 48 ساعة → sustained_change (تغيير حقيقي مقترح)
+ *   - غير هيك → stable
+ *
+ * فترة سكون: أي تغيير "حقيقي" مقترح يُحتجز إذا كان آخر تغيير حقيقي
+ * (would_apply=1 من نوع sustained_change) بآخر 3 أيام.
+ *
+ * جدولة مقترحة: كل 3 ساعات، بالتوازي مع cron_ai_engine.php.
+ *
+ * ملاحظة: competitor_formula_history جدول جديد — بيضل فاضي/قليل
+ * البيانات لأول أسبوع بعد النشر لحد ما يتراكم تاريخ كافي لحساب
+ * وسيط 7 أيام موثوق. هذا متوقع وطبيعي، مو خطأ.
+ */
+
+require_once __DIR__ . '/../core/bootstrap.php';
+require_once __DIR__ . '/../functions.php';
+
+try {
+    $con = Database::get('main');
+} catch (Exception $e) {
+    die("Connection failed: " . $e->getMessage() . "\n");
+}
+
+echo "Starting Pricing Stability Engine (Shadow Mode)...\n";
+
+// ==========================================
+// 0. إنشاء الجداول إذا لم تكن موجودة
+// ==========================================
+$con->exec("
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS `pricing_stability_log` (
+  `id` BIGINT UNSIGNED NOT NULL AUTO_INCREMENT,
+  `country_code` VARCHAR(5) NOT NULL,
+  `tier` VARCHAR(20) NOT NULL DEFAULT 'economy',
+  `reference_median_km_rate` DECIMAL(10,4) NOT NULL,
+  `current_km_rate` DECIMAL(10,4) NOT NULL,
+  `drift_pct` DECIMAL(6,2) NOT NULL,
+  `classification` ENUM('stable','temporary_promo','sustained_change') NOT NULL,
+  `suggested_action` TEXT NULL,
+  `would_apply` TINYINT(1) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  `hold_reason` VARCHAR(100) NULL,
+  `evaluated_at` TIMESTAMP NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
+  PRIMARY KEY (`id`),
+  KEY `idx_country_time` (`country_code`, `evaluated_at`)
+) ENGINE=InnoDB DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4;
+");
+
+$con->exec("
+CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS `country_pricing_floor` (
+  `country_code` VARCHAR(5) NOT NULL,
+  `min_km_rate` DECIMAL(10,4) NOT NULL,
+  `min_base_fare` DECIMAL(10,4) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
+  `updated_by` VARCHAR(100) NULL,
+  `updated_at` TIMESTAMP NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP ON UPDATE CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
+  PRIMARY KEY (`country_code`)
+) ENGINE=InnoDB DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4;
+");
+
+// ==========================================
+// إعدادات
+// ==========================================
+$countryNameMap  = ['JO' => 'Jordan', 'SY' => 'Syria', 'EG' => 'Egypt', 'IQ' => 'Iraq'];
+$tierPriority    = ['economy', 'standard', 'premium'];
+$promoDropPct    = -15.0;   // انخفاض مفاجئ أكبر من هذا = برومو مؤقت
+$driftThreshold  = 5.0;     // انحراف أكبر من هذا (مطلق) يستاهل الانتباه
+$sustainedWindow = 48;      // ساعة — لازم الانحراف يستمر عبرها
+$holdDays        = 3;       // فترة سكون بعد أي تغيير حقيقي مقترح
+$maxStepPct      = 3.0;     // أقصى تغيير مسموح بالمرة الوحدة
+$discountFactor  = 1 - 0.065;
+
+/** وسيط بسيط لمصفوفة أرقام */
+function median_of(array $nums): ?float {
+    $nums = array_values(array_filter($nums, fn($n) => $n !== null && $n > 0));
+    if (empty($nums)) return null;
+    sort($nums);
+    $count = count($nums);
+    $mid = intdiv($count, 2);
+    if ($count % 2 === 0) {
+        return ($nums[$mid - 1] + $nums[$mid]) / 2;
+    }
+    return $nums[$mid];
+}
+
+foreach ($countryNameMap as $cc => $countryName) {
+    echo "\n[$cc] Evaluating...\n";
+
+    // ── 1. سعر Siro الحالي بجدول kazan (للأرضية وحساب التغيير المقترح) ──
+    $stmtKazan = $con->prepare("SELECT speedPrice, startPrice FROM kazan WHERE country = :country LIMIT 1");
+    $stmtKazan->execute([':country' => $countryName]);
+    $kazanRow = $stmtKazan->fetch(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
+    $currentSiroKmRate = $kazanRow ? (float)$kazanRow['speedPrice'] : 0.0;
+
+    if ($currentSiroKmRate <= 0) {
+        echo "   ⚠️ No kazan row for $countryName. Skipping.\n";
+        continue;
+    }
+
+    // ── 2. أرضية ربحية — زرعها تلقائياً أول مرة بـ85% من السعر الحالي ──
+    $stmtFloor = $con->prepare("SELECT min_km_rate FROM country_pricing_floor WHERE country_code = :cc");
+    $stmtFloor->execute([':cc' => $cc]);
+    $floorRow = $stmtFloor->fetch(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
+
+    if (!$floorRow) {
+        $seedFloor = round($currentSiroKmRate * 0.85, 4);
+        $insFloor = $con->prepare("
+            INSERT INTO country_pricing_floor (country_code, min_km_rate, min_base_fare, updated_by)
+            VALUES (:cc, :floor, 0, 'auto_seed_default')
+        ");
+        $insFloor->execute([':cc' => $cc, ':floor' => $seedFloor]);
+        $floorKmRate = $seedFloor;
+        echo "   🌱 Seeded default profit floor: $seedFloor (85% of current price)\n";
+    } else {
+        $floorKmRate = (float)$floorRow['min_km_rate'];
+    }
+
+    // ── 3. اختيار أفضل فئة متوفرة (economy أولاً) من المعادلات الحالية ──
+    $currentTier = null;
+    $currentKmRate = null;
+    foreach ($tierPriority as $tier) {
+        $stmtCur = $con->prepare("
+            SELECT price_per_km FROM competitor_secret_formulas
+            WHERE country_code = :cc AND tier = :tier
+            ORDER BY last_updated DESC LIMIT 1
+        ");
+        $stmtCur->execute([':cc' => $cc, ':tier' => $tier]);
+        $row = $stmtCur->fetch(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
+        if ($row && (float)$row['price_per_km'] > 0) {
+            $currentTier = $tier;
+            $currentKmRate = (float)$row['price_per_km'];
+            break;
+        }
+    }
+
+    if ($currentKmRate === null) {
+        echo "   ⚠️ No current competitor formula for $countryName. Skipping.\n";
+        continue;
+    }
+
+    // ── 4. الوسيط المرجعي لآخر 7 أيام من سجل التاريخ ──
+    $stmtHist = $con->prepare("
+        SELECT price_per_km FROM competitor_formula_history
+        WHERE country_code = :cc AND tier = :tier
+          AND snapshotted_at >= DATE_SUB(NOW(), INTERVAL 7 DAY)
+        ORDER BY snapshotted_at ASC
+    ");
+    $stmtHist->execute([':cc' => $cc, ':tier' => $currentTier]);
+    $historyRates = array_map('floatval', $stmtHist->fetchAll(PDO::FETCH_COLUMN));
+
+    $referenceMedian = median_of($historyRates);
+
+    if ($referenceMedian === null) {
+        echo "   ℹ️ Not enough history yet for $countryName [tier=$currentTier] — building up (need ~7 days). Skipping evaluation.\n";
+        continue;
+    }
+
+    // ── 5. حساب الانحراف ──
+    $driftPct = round((($currentKmRate - $referenceMedian) / $referenceMedian) * 100, 2);
+
+    // ── 6. هل الانحراف مستمر آخر 48 ساعة؟ ──
+    $stmtRecent = $con->prepare("
+        SELECT price_per_km FROM competitor_formula_history
+        WHERE country_code = :cc AND tier = :tier
+          AND snapshotted_at >= DATE_SUB(NOW(), INTERVAL :hours HOUR)
+        ORDER BY snapshotted_at ASC
+    ");
+    $stmtRecent->execute([':cc' => $cc, ':tier' => $currentTier, ':hours' => $sustainedWindow]);
+    $recentRates = array_map('floatval', $stmtRecent->fetchAll(PDO::FETCH_COLUMN));
+
+    $isSustained = false;
+    if (count($recentRates) >= 2) {
+        $sameDirectionCount = 0;
+        foreach ($recentRates as $r) {
+            $rDrift = (($r - $referenceMedian) / $referenceMedian) * 100;
+            $sameSign = ($driftPct >= 0 && $rDrift >= 0) || ($driftPct < 0 && $rDrift < 0);
+            if ($sameSign && abs($rDrift) > $driftThreshold) {
+                $sameDirectionCount++;
+            }
+        }
+        // كل اللقطات بآخر 48 ساعة (وليس عينة واحدة) تؤكد نفس الاتجاه
+        $isSustained = ($sameDirectionCount === count($recentRates));
+    }
+
+    // ── 7. التصنيف ──
+    if ($driftPct <= $promoDropPct) {
+        $classification = 'temporary_promo';
+    } elseif (abs($driftPct) > $driftThreshold && $isSustained) {
+        $classification = 'sustained_change';
+    } else {
+        $classification = 'stable';
+    }
+
+    // ── 8. الإجراء المقترح + would_apply + فترة السكون ──
+    $wouldApply = false;
+    $holdReason = null;
+    $suggestedAction = 'لا إجراء — السعر ثابت';
+
+    if ($classification === 'temporary_promo') {
+        $wouldApply = true;
+        $suggestedAction = "منافس نازل مؤقتاً بنسبة " . abs($driftPct) . "% تحت المرجع — الرد المقترح: كود خصم مؤقت عبر محرك التسويق، بدون لمس السعر الأساسي";
+    } elseif ($classification === 'sustained_change') {
+        // تحقق من فترة السكون بالاعتماد على سجلّنا الخاص فقط (shadow-only)
+        $stmtLastApply = $con->prepare("
+            SELECT evaluated_at FROM pricing_stability_log
+            WHERE country_code = :cc AND classification = 'sustained_change' AND would_apply = 1
+            ORDER BY evaluated_at DESC LIMIT 1
+        ");
+        $stmtLastApply->execute([':cc' => $cc]);
+        $lastApply = $stmtLastApply->fetchColumn();
+
+        $inHoldPeriod = false;
+        if ($lastApply) {
+            $daysSince = (time() - strtotime($lastApply)) / 86400;
+            $inHoldPeriod = $daysSince < $holdDays;
+        }
+
+        // السعر المستهدف: نفس منطق الخصم 6.5% المعتمد، بحد أقصى 3% تغيير بالمرة، ومقيّد بالأرضية
+        $rawTarget = $currentKmRate * $discountFactor;
+        $maxUp = $currentSiroKmRate * (1 + $maxStepPct / 100);
+        $maxDown = $currentSiroKmRate * (1 - $maxStepPct / 100);
+        $clampedTarget = max($maxDown, min($maxUp, $rawTarget));
+        $clampedTarget = max($clampedTarget, $floorKmRate);
+        $clampedTarget = round($clampedTarget, 4);
+
+        if ($inHoldPeriod) {
+            $wouldApply = false;
+            $holdReason = 'hold_period_active';
+            $suggestedAction = "تغيير مستمر ({$driftPct}%) — بس بفترة سكون (آخر تغيير قبل أقل من $holdDays أيام). لو مفعّل: من $currentSiroKmRate إلى $clampedTarget";
+        } else {
+            $wouldApply = true;
+            $suggestedAction = "تغيير مستمر ({$driftPct}%) — سعر كيلو مقترح: من $currentSiroKmRate إلى $clampedTarget (مقيّد بـ{$maxStepPct}% والأرضية $floorKmRate)";
+        }
+    }
+
+    // ── 9. تسجيل النتيجة ──
+    $insLog = $con->prepare("
+        INSERT INTO pricing_stability_log
+            (country_code, tier, reference_median_km_rate, current_km_rate, drift_pct, classification, suggested_action, would_apply, hold_reason)
+        VALUES
+            (:cc, :tier, :ref, :cur, :drift, :cls, :action, :apply, :hold)
+    ");
+    $insLog->execute([
+        ':cc'     => $cc,
+        ':tier'   => $currentTier,
+        ':ref'    => $referenceMedian,
+        ':cur'    => $currentKmRate,
+        ':drift'  => $driftPct,
+        ':cls'    => $classification,
+        ':action' => $suggestedAction,
+        ':apply'  => $wouldApply ? 1 : 0,
+        ':hold'   => $holdReason,
+    ]);
+
+    $icon = $classification === 'stable' ? '✅' : ($classification === 'temporary_promo' ? '🎯' : '⚠️');
+    echo "   $icon [tier=$currentTier] drift={$driftPct}% → $classification\n";
+    echo "      $suggestedAction\n";
+}
+
+echo "\nPricing Stability Engine finished (shadow mode — kazan not touched).\n";
@@ -129,6 +129,46 @@ export async function saveFormulas(
  await pool.execute(sql, flatParams);
 }

+/**
+ * لقطة insert-only من معاملات كل معادلة — لا تُستبدل أبداً، بعكس
+ * competitor_secret_formulas (UPSERT). هاي المصدر اللي يقارن عليه
+ * محرك الثبات (cron_pricing_stability_engine.php) "المعامل اليوم
+ * مقابل المعامل قبل أسبوع" لتمييز التغيير الحقيقي عن البرومو المؤقت.
+ */
+export async function saveFormulaHistory(
+  pool: mysql.Pool,
+  formulas: Array<{
+    competitorName: string;
+    countryCode: string;
+    tier: string;
+    baseFare: number;
+    kmRate: number;
+    minRate: number;
+    minFare: number;
+    rSquared: number;
+    sampleCount: number;
+  }>
+): Promise<void> {
+  if (formulas.length === 0) return;
+
+  const values = formulas.map(() => `(?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, NOW())`).join(',');
+  const flatParams: (string | number)[] = [];
+
+  for (const f of formulas) {
+    flatParams.push(
+      f.competitorName, f.countryCode, f.tier,
+      f.baseFare, f.kmRate, f.minRate, f.minFare,
+      f.rSquared, f.sampleCount
+    );
+  }
+
+  const sql = `INSERT INTO competitor_formula_history
+    (competitor_name, country_code, tier, base_fare, price_per_km, price_per_min, min_fare, r_squared, sample_size, snapshotted_at)
+    VALUES ${values}`;
+
+  await pool.execute(sql, flatParams);
+}
+
 export async function saveSurgeInsights(
  pool: mysql.Pool,
  insights: Array<{
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
 * Cron integration: see crontab examples in package.json scripts
 */

-import { getMySQL, fetchSamples, saveFormulas, saveSurgeInsights, saveSurgeZones, closeConnections } from './db/connection';
+import { getMySQL, fetchSamples, saveFormulas, saveFormulaHistory, saveSurgeInsights, saveSurgeZones, closeConnections } from './db/connection';
 import { runAnalysis } from './analysis/engine';
 import { Pool, RowDataPacket } from 'mysql2/promise';

@@ -236,6 +236,19 @@ async function processCompetitor(
    if (peakHours.length > 0) {
      console.log(`      Peak hours stored: [${peakHours.join(', ')}]`);
    }
+
+    // لقطة insert-only لمحرك الثبات (drift detection) — لا تُستبدل أبداً
+    await saveFormulaHistory(pool, formulas.map(f => ({
+      competitorName: f.competitorName,
+      countryCode: f.countryCode,
+      tier: f.tier,
+      baseFare: f.baseFare,
+      kmRate: f.kmRate,
+      minRate: f.minRate,
+      minFare: f.minFare,
+      rSquared: f.rSquared,
+      sampleCount: f.sampleCount,
+    })));
  }

  // --- Save surge insights ---