270 lines
12 KiB
PHP
270 lines
12 KiB
PHP
<?php
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/**
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* cron_pricing_stability_engine.php
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* ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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* محرك الثبات والاستقرار — وضع مراقبة (Shadow Mode) فقط.
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*
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* ما بيلمس جدول kazan أبداً. بيقارن معامل سعر الكيلو الحالي لكل
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* منافس/دولة (من competitor_secret_formulas) مع الوسيط المرجعي
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* لآخر 7 أيام (من competitor_formula_history)، ويسجّل تصنيفه
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* والإجراء المقترح بجدول pricing_stability_log لمراجعته يدوياً.
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*
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* التصنيف:
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* - drift <= -15% → temporary_promo (برومو مؤقت — لا يُغيَّر السعر الأساسي)
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* - |drift| > 5% مستمر عبر آخر 48 ساعة → sustained_change (تغيير حقيقي مقترح)
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* - غير هيك → stable
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*
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* فترة سكون: أي تغيير "حقيقي" مقترح يُحتجز إذا كان آخر تغيير حقيقي
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* (would_apply=1 من نوع sustained_change) بآخر 3 أيام.
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*
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* جدولة مقترحة: كل 3 ساعات، بالتوازي مع cron_ai_engine.php.
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*
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* ملاحظة: competitor_formula_history جدول جديد — بيضل فاضي/قليل
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* البيانات لأول أسبوع بعد النشر لحد ما يتراكم تاريخ كافي لحساب
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* وسيط 7 أيام موثوق. هذا متوقع وطبيعي، مو خطأ.
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*/
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require_once __DIR__ . '/../core/bootstrap.php';
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require_once __DIR__ . '/../functions.php';
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try {
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$con = Database::get('main');
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} catch (Exception $e) {
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die("Connection failed: " . $e->getMessage() . "\n");
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}
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echo "Starting Pricing Stability Engine (Shadow Mode)...\n";
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// ==========================================
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// 0. إنشاء الجداول إذا لم تكن موجودة
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// ==========================================
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$con->exec("
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS `pricing_stability_log` (
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`id` BIGINT UNSIGNED NOT NULL AUTO_INCREMENT,
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`country_code` VARCHAR(5) NOT NULL,
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`tier` VARCHAR(20) NOT NULL DEFAULT 'economy',
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`reference_median_km_rate` DECIMAL(10,4) NOT NULL,
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`current_km_rate` DECIMAL(10,4) NOT NULL,
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`drift_pct` DECIMAL(6,2) NOT NULL,
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`classification` ENUM('stable','temporary_promo','sustained_change') NOT NULL,
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`suggested_action` TEXT NULL,
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`would_apply` TINYINT(1) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
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`hold_reason` VARCHAR(100) NULL,
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`evaluated_at` TIMESTAMP NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
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PRIMARY KEY (`id`),
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KEY `idx_country_time` (`country_code`, `evaluated_at`)
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) ENGINE=InnoDB DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4;
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");
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$con->exec("
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CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS `country_pricing_floor` (
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`country_code` VARCHAR(5) NOT NULL,
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`min_km_rate` DECIMAL(10,4) NOT NULL,
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`min_base_fare` DECIMAL(10,4) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,
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`updated_by` VARCHAR(100) NULL,
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`updated_at` TIMESTAMP NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP ON UPDATE CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
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PRIMARY KEY (`country_code`)
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) ENGINE=InnoDB DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4;
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");
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// ==========================================
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// إعدادات
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// ==========================================
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$countryNameMap = ['JO' => 'Jordan', 'SY' => 'Syria', 'EG' => 'Egypt', 'IQ' => 'Iraq'];
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$tierPriority = ['economy', 'standard', 'premium'];
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$promoDropPct = -15.0; // انخفاض مفاجئ أكبر من هذا = برومو مؤقت
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$driftThreshold = 5.0; // انحراف أكبر من هذا (مطلق) يستاهل الانتباه
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$sustainedWindow = 48; // ساعة — لازم الانحراف يستمر عبرها
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$holdDays = 3; // فترة سكون بعد أي تغيير حقيقي مقترح
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$maxStepPct = 3.0; // أقصى تغيير مسموح بالمرة الوحدة
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$discountFactor = 1 - 0.065;
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/** وسيط بسيط لمصفوفة أرقام */
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function median_of(array $nums): ?float {
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$nums = array_values(array_filter($nums, fn($n) => $n !== null && $n > 0));
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if (empty($nums)) return null;
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sort($nums);
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$count = count($nums);
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$mid = intdiv($count, 2);
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if ($count % 2 === 0) {
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return ($nums[$mid - 1] + $nums[$mid]) / 2;
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}
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return $nums[$mid];
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}
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foreach ($countryNameMap as $cc => $countryName) {
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echo "\n[$cc] Evaluating...\n";
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// ── 1. سعر Siro الحالي بجدول kazan (للأرضية وحساب التغيير المقترح) ──
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$stmtKazan = $con->prepare("SELECT speedPrice, startPrice FROM kazan WHERE country = :country LIMIT 1");
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$stmtKazan->execute([':country' => $countryName]);
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$kazanRow = $stmtKazan->fetch(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
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$currentSiroKmRate = $kazanRow ? (float)$kazanRow['speedPrice'] : 0.0;
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if ($currentSiroKmRate <= 0) {
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echo " ⚠️ No kazan row for $countryName. Skipping.\n";
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continue;
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}
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// ── 2. أرضية ربحية — زرعها تلقائياً أول مرة بـ85% من السعر الحالي ──
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$stmtFloor = $con->prepare("SELECT min_km_rate FROM country_pricing_floor WHERE country_code = :cc");
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$stmtFloor->execute([':cc' => $cc]);
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$floorRow = $stmtFloor->fetch(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
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if (!$floorRow) {
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$seedFloor = round($currentSiroKmRate * 0.85, 4);
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$insFloor = $con->prepare("
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INSERT INTO country_pricing_floor (country_code, min_km_rate, min_base_fare, updated_by)
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VALUES (:cc, :floor, 0, 'auto_seed_default')
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");
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$insFloor->execute([':cc' => $cc, ':floor' => $seedFloor]);
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$floorKmRate = $seedFloor;
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echo " 🌱 Seeded default profit floor: $seedFloor (85% of current price)\n";
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} else {
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$floorKmRate = (float)$floorRow['min_km_rate'];
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}
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// ── 3. اختيار أفضل فئة متوفرة (economy أولاً) من المعادلات الحالية ──
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$currentTier = null;
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$currentKmRate = null;
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foreach ($tierPriority as $tier) {
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$stmtCur = $con->prepare("
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SELECT price_per_km FROM competitor_secret_formulas
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WHERE country_code = :cc AND tier = :tier
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ORDER BY last_updated DESC LIMIT 1
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");
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$stmtCur->execute([':cc' => $cc, ':tier' => $tier]);
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$row = $stmtCur->fetch(PDO::FETCH_ASSOC);
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if ($row && (float)$row['price_per_km'] > 0) {
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$currentTier = $tier;
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$currentKmRate = (float)$row['price_per_km'];
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break;
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}
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}
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if ($currentKmRate === null) {
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echo " ⚠️ No current competitor formula for $countryName. Skipping.\n";
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continue;
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}
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// ── 4. الوسيط المرجعي لآخر 7 أيام من سجل التاريخ ──
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$stmtHist = $con->prepare("
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SELECT price_per_km FROM competitor_formula_history
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WHERE country_code = :cc AND tier = :tier
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AND snapshotted_at >= DATE_SUB(NOW(), INTERVAL 7 DAY)
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ORDER BY snapshotted_at ASC
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");
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$stmtHist->execute([':cc' => $cc, ':tier' => $currentTier]);
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$historyRates = array_map('floatval', $stmtHist->fetchAll(PDO::FETCH_COLUMN));
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$referenceMedian = median_of($historyRates);
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if ($referenceMedian === null) {
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echo " ℹ️ Not enough history yet for $countryName [tier=$currentTier] — building up (need ~7 days). Skipping evaluation.\n";
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continue;
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}
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// ── 5. حساب الانحراف ──
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$driftPct = round((($currentKmRate - $referenceMedian) / $referenceMedian) * 100, 2);
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// ── 6. هل الانحراف مستمر آخر 48 ساعة؟ ──
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$stmtRecent = $con->prepare("
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SELECT price_per_km FROM competitor_formula_history
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WHERE country_code = :cc AND tier = :tier
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AND snapshotted_at >= DATE_SUB(NOW(), INTERVAL :hours HOUR)
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ORDER BY snapshotted_at ASC
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");
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$stmtRecent->execute([':cc' => $cc, ':tier' => $currentTier, ':hours' => $sustainedWindow]);
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$recentRates = array_map('floatval', $stmtRecent->fetchAll(PDO::FETCH_COLUMN));
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$isSustained = false;
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if (count($recentRates) >= 2) {
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$sameDirectionCount = 0;
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foreach ($recentRates as $r) {
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$rDrift = (($r - $referenceMedian) / $referenceMedian) * 100;
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$sameSign = ($driftPct >= 0 && $rDrift >= 0) || ($driftPct < 0 && $rDrift < 0);
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if ($sameSign && abs($rDrift) > $driftThreshold) {
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$sameDirectionCount++;
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}
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}
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// كل اللقطات بآخر 48 ساعة (وليس عينة واحدة) تؤكد نفس الاتجاه
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$isSustained = ($sameDirectionCount === count($recentRates));
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}
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// ── 7. التصنيف ──
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if ($driftPct <= $promoDropPct) {
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$classification = 'temporary_promo';
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} elseif (abs($driftPct) > $driftThreshold && $isSustained) {
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$classification = 'sustained_change';
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} else {
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$classification = 'stable';
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}
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// ── 8. الإجراء المقترح + would_apply + فترة السكون ──
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$wouldApply = false;
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$holdReason = null;
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$suggestedAction = 'لا إجراء — السعر ثابت';
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if ($classification === 'temporary_promo') {
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$wouldApply = true;
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$suggestedAction = "منافس نازل مؤقتاً بنسبة " . abs($driftPct) . "% تحت المرجع — الرد المقترح: كود خصم مؤقت عبر محرك التسويق، بدون لمس السعر الأساسي";
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} elseif ($classification === 'sustained_change') {
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// تحقق من فترة السكون بالاعتماد على سجلّنا الخاص فقط (shadow-only)
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$stmtLastApply = $con->prepare("
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SELECT evaluated_at FROM pricing_stability_log
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WHERE country_code = :cc AND classification = 'sustained_change' AND would_apply = 1
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ORDER BY evaluated_at DESC LIMIT 1
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");
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$stmtLastApply->execute([':cc' => $cc]);
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$lastApply = $stmtLastApply->fetchColumn();
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$inHoldPeriod = false;
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if ($lastApply) {
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$daysSince = (time() - strtotime($lastApply)) / 86400;
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$inHoldPeriod = $daysSince < $holdDays;
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}
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// السعر المستهدف: نفس منطق الخصم 6.5% المعتمد، بحد أقصى 3% تغيير بالمرة، ومقيّد بالأرضية
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$rawTarget = $currentKmRate * $discountFactor;
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$maxUp = $currentSiroKmRate * (1 + $maxStepPct / 100);
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$maxDown = $currentSiroKmRate * (1 - $maxStepPct / 100);
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$clampedTarget = max($maxDown, min($maxUp, $rawTarget));
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$clampedTarget = max($clampedTarget, $floorKmRate);
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$clampedTarget = round($clampedTarget, 4);
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if ($inHoldPeriod) {
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$wouldApply = false;
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$holdReason = 'hold_period_active';
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$suggestedAction = "تغيير مستمر ({$driftPct}%) — بس بفترة سكون (آخر تغيير قبل أقل من $holdDays أيام). لو مفعّل: من $currentSiroKmRate إلى $clampedTarget";
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} else {
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$wouldApply = true;
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$suggestedAction = "تغيير مستمر ({$driftPct}%) — سعر كيلو مقترح: من $currentSiroKmRate إلى $clampedTarget (مقيّد بـ{$maxStepPct}% والأرضية $floorKmRate)";
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}
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}
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// ── 9. تسجيل النتيجة ──
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$insLog = $con->prepare("
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INSERT INTO pricing_stability_log
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(country_code, tier, reference_median_km_rate, current_km_rate, drift_pct, classification, suggested_action, would_apply, hold_reason)
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VALUES
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(:cc, :tier, :ref, :cur, :drift, :cls, :action, :apply, :hold)
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");
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$insLog->execute([
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':cc' => $cc,
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':tier' => $currentTier,
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':ref' => $referenceMedian,
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':cur' => $currentKmRate,
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':drift' => $driftPct,
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':cls' => $classification,
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':action' => $suggestedAction,
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':apply' => $wouldApply ? 1 : 0,
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':hold' => $holdReason,
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]);
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$icon = $classification === 'stable' ? '✅' : ($classification === 'temporary_promo' ? '🎯' : '⚠️');
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echo " $icon [tier=$currentTier] drift={$driftPct}% → $classification\n";
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echo " $suggestedAction\n";
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}
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echo "\nPricing Stability Engine finished (shadow mode — kazan not touched).\n";
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